As Becky Bowen pointed out, the Arya Stark not today Game Of Thrones shirt and Arya had met before. On top of that, the Waif would have had zero points of reference for the “not today” callback, would not have known Gendry’s past experience with Melisandre, would not have known Beric and Sandor’s past experience with Arya, and would not have had any obvious reason to return to Winterfell, let alone risk her life to defeat the Others. I also suspect that someone like Melisandre would have been able to tell if Arya was actually someone else, even with Arya’s face.
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The “Arya is the Waif!” thing never made that Arya Stark not today Game Of Thrones shirt, especially once Arya actually made it back to Westeros and started doing stuff Arya would do but that wouldn’t matter at all to the Waif — the fuck does the Waif care about what the Freys did to the Starks? It was flimsy even before the Long Night, but after that, I don’t see how it could possibly be true. When Arya was sneaking around in the library, she had a dragonglass dagger and the Valyrian steel dagger with her. She manages to kill one of the wights with the dragonglass dagger, but presumably loses it when she was fighting more of them soon after.